Publications: Notes at the Margin

Confusion Reigns (September 14, 2015)


The global oil market is in surplus—or it is not. Oil prices will fall to $20 per barrel—or maybe rise. There is no consensus. None. Last week, the uncertainty only increased. Many organizations issued forecasts. Each seemed to have a different twist. It was difficult to know what to think, especially since many forecasters provided only graphs and not the numbers underlying their projections. Without the data, it was difficult to test the assertions being offered. This week's report explores the wide variation in recent oil market projections.


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