Publications: Notes at the Margin

Commodity Markets 101 (July 28, 2014)


Three weeks ago, we examined open interest in August gasoline futures and noted that it was unusally high. The long position of money managers, in particular, totaled eighty-nine thousand contracts, more than forty thousand contracts higher than their position at this time a year earlier. We suggested the gasoline market could see significant selling pressure in coming weeks and that this could put substantial downward pressure on crude prices. For once markets followed our hypothetical scenario precisely. Our report provides the details.


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