Publications: Notes at the Margin

Battle for Market Share: Repeating 1998? (September 8, 2014)


Those with long memories of oil market behavior will recall the gasoil surplus in Asia that pulled crude prices down sixty-four percent from the beginning of 1997 to the end of 1998. The lowest Brent prices then were around $9 per barrel. Could a price decrease like the 1998 "death spiral" be starting now? It might be if oil-exporting countries begin to fight for market share. This week's report analyzes current circumstances and the potential for a repeat of the 1998 global market events.


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