Publications: The Petroleum Economics Monthly
The Success of Good Economic Policy Overcame the Failure of Terrible Energy Policy (December 2013)
The title of this Petroleum Economics Monthly is a mouthful: “The Success of Good Economic Policy Overcame the Failure of Terrible Energy Policy.” Our view, which we illustrate in detail in this issue, is that consumers have benefited since 2009 from good economic policies that kept oil prices down. These benefits are coming to an end. New regulations being pushed by the Federal Reserve and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission will constrain financial markets such that they can no longer support independent entrepreneurs. The effect of these regulatory efforts is already visible in the domestic oil and natural gas forward price curves. The government’s actions will almost certainly limit the ability of independent firms to hedge, which will slow the growth rate of oil and gas production in 2014, 2015, and beyond if these policies are not reversed. As a consequence, the world will likely see much higher prices in the next two to three years.
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