Publications: The Petroleum Economics Monthly

OPEC Trumped: Consequences of Republican Tax Policy for Oil Markets (October/November 2016)

This double issue of The Petroleum Economics Monthly contains two papers on related subjects. The first addresses US border tax adjustments and the likely impact on global crude prices. House Republicans have announced they intend to reform the US tax code. A key proposal is to change the corporate tax from one on worldwide income to one on sales in the United States. The revision has very important implications for global oil prices. If adopted, the change could depress global economic growth and cause oil consumption to decline in 2017 and 2018 from 2016 levels, just as US economic policies did during the Latin American debt crisis in the early 1980s and the Asian debt crisis in the 1990s.

The second part of this report focuses on the impact of the border tax on the United States. This is a joint report written by Philip Verleger of PKVerleger LLC and Kevin Neels, Pallavi Seth, and Fabricio Nunez of The Brattle Group. The authors show that US gasoline prices could be increased twelve to fifteen percent while nominal GPD could be reduced 0.4 percent (the impact on real GDP would be identical) if crude prices average $60 per barrel.

Use the link below to view or download the report summary.